Lazio vs Cagliari: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lazio the pick at 68% for Lazio vs Cagliari. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lazio face Cagliari on 1 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. Lazio are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 68%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as Lazio - Cagliari. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lazio: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (30 scored and 32 conceded in 26 matches, 1.15 and 1.23 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +15.
Cagliari: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 36 conceded in 25 matches, 1.12 and 1.44 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.1 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lazio | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 10th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | LLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 17 / 7 | 4 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 25 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.15 / 1.23 | 1.12 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.42 | 1.16 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 78.8 | 37.1 |
| Players unavailable | 8 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 68% | 11% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 4 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): Lazio four wins, Cagliari none wins, one draw — an edge to Lazio.
- Most recent meeting: Cagliari 0-0 Lazio on 21 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.2 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the five — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Lazio 78.8 versus Cagliari 37.1, a gap of 41.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Lazio's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Lazio at 68%, a gap of 48 percentage points to the next outcome. Lazio's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lazio's way, especially at Stadio Olimpico.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lazio or Cagliari?
Lazio, with an implied win probability of roughly 68%. The full split is 68% Lazio, 20% the draw and 11% Cagliari.
When and where is Lazio vs Cagliari being played?
1 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lazio and Cagliari?
Cagliari 0-0 Lazio on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Lazio and Cagliari?
Lazio have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Cagliari 4 from theirs (LLLDW). Most recently Lazio took a 6-2 win away at Sassuolo and Cagliari a 2-4 defeat away at AS Roma.
How many goals are expected in Lazio vs Cagliari?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 3.00 for Lazio and 1.20 for Cagliari. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists eight players unavailable for Lazio and six for Cagliari at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.