Lecce vs Genoa: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lecce the pick at 43% for Lecce vs Genoa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Genoa travel to Lecce on 1 November 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce. Lecce are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as Lecce - Genoa. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Lecce: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 29 conceded in 25 matches, 0.68 and 1.16 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -9.
Genoa: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 33 conceded in 24 matches, 1.21 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lecce | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLL | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 12 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 24 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.68 / 1.16 | 1.21 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.8 | 53.8 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Lecce two wins, Genoa two wins, two draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Lecce 1-0 Genoa on 24 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.33 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Lecce 32.8 versus Genoa 53.8, a gap of 21.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Lecce carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Lecce's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Lecce at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Genoa's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate. Baseline expectation tilts Lecce's way, especially at Stadio Via del Mare.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lecce or Genoa?
Lecce, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Lecce, 25% the draw and 32% Genoa.
When and where is Lecce vs Genoa being played?
1 November 2026 at Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Lecce and Genoa?
Lecce 1-0 Genoa on 24 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Lecce and Genoa?
Lecce have taken 3 points from their last five (LLWLL), Genoa 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Lecce took a 1-5 defeat away at Frosinone and Genoa a 2-0 win at home to Juventus.
How many goals are expected in Lecce vs Genoa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for Lecce and 1.20 for Genoa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Lecce and six for Genoa at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.