Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: match summary, form and prediction
Fiorentina travel to Sassuolo needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 18th and winless in five. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
Match summary
Sassuolo host Fiorentina on 2 November 2026 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. Fiorentina are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 10 fixture in Serie A is listed as Sassuolo - Fiorentina. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Sassuolo: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 31 conceded in 23 matches, 1.22 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -8.
Fiorentina: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (43 scored and 44 conceded in 32 matches, 1.34 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 29.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -10. For a club of Fiorentina's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Sassuolo | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLDL | DLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 15 | 6 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 32 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.22 / 1.35 | 1.34 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.26 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.3 | 29.2 |
| Players unavailable | 10 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 45% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 2 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Sassuolo two wins, Fiorentina three wins, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo on 26 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Sassuolo 26.3 versus Fiorentina 29.2, a gap of 2.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Big club, bad season: Fiorentina are 18th with a goal difference of -10 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Fiorentina's way at 57%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Fiorentina at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sassuolo or Fiorentina?
Fiorentina, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 28% Sassuolo, 26% the draw and 45% Fiorentina.
When and where is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina being played?
2 November 2026 at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina 0-0 Sassuolo on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Sassuolo and Fiorentina?
Sassuolo have taken 1 points from their last five (LLLDL), Fiorentina 2 from theirs (DLLLD). Most recently Sassuolo took a 2-6 defeat at home to Lazio and Fiorentina a 2-2 draw at home to Atalanta.
How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.60 for Sassuolo and 2.20 for Fiorentina. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists ten players unavailable for Sassuolo and ten for Fiorentina at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.