AS Roma vs Sassuolo: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes AS Roma the pick at 80% for AS Roma vs Sassuolo. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
AS Roma face Sassuolo on 7 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. AS Roma are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 80%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie A is listed as AS Roma - Sassuolo. Kick-off is 19:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AS Roma: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 2.83 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +18.
Sassuolo: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one draw before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 17 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 2.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | AS Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 17th |
| Goal difference | +18 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | LLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 18 / 7 | 7 / 17 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.83 / 1.5 | 1.67 / 2.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 66.2 | 25.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 5 |
| Model win probability | 80% | 6% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 5): AS Roma three wins, Sassuolo one win, one draw — an edge to AS Roma.
- Most recent meeting: AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo on 10 January 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in three of the five — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: AS Roma 66.2 versus Sassuolo 25.8, a gap of 40.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: Sassuolo carry the heavier absentee list, five players to no.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.80, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans AS Roma's way at 77%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards AS Roma at 80%, a gap of 66 percentage points to the next outcome. AS Roma's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts AS Roma's way, especially at Stadio Olimpico.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AS Roma or Sassuolo?
AS Roma, with an implied win probability of roughly 80%. The full split is 80% AS Roma, 14% the draw and 6% Sassuolo.
When and where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico, Rome, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo on 10 January 2026.
What is the recent form of AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Sassuolo 1 from theirs (LLLLD). Most recently AS Roma took a 5-2 win away at Udinese and Sassuolo a 2-4 defeat at home to Fiorentina.
How many goals are expected in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.80 — 3.00 for AS Roma and 1.80 for Sassuolo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists no players unavailable for AS Roma and five for Sassuolo at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.