Cagliari vs Frosinone: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Frosinone the pick at 48% for Cagliari vs Frosinone. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cagliari host Frosinone on 7 November 2026 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari. Frosinone are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie A is listed as Cagliari - Frosinone. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cagliari: they come in on four defeats in a row, following one draw before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.17 and 1.83 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -6.
Frosinone: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 9 conceded in six matches, 2.67 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Cagliari | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -6 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLLD | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 13 | 15 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.17 / 1.83 | 2.67 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 26.8 | 60.8 |
| Players unavailable | 1 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 48% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 1 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Cagliari one win, Frosinone one win, none draws — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari on 21 January 2024.
- Head-to-head goals: 5.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Cagliari 26.8 versus Frosinone 60.8, a gap of 34.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Frosinone's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Frosinone at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Frosinone's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cagliari or Frosinone?
Frosinone, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 29% Cagliari, 23% the draw and 48% Frosinone.
When and where is Cagliari vs Frosinone being played?
7 November 2026 at Unipol Domus, Cagliari, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Cagliari and Frosinone?
Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari on 21 January 2024.
What is the recent form of Cagliari and Frosinone?
Cagliari have taken 1 points from their last five (LLLLD), Frosinone 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently Cagliari took a 1-2 defeat away at Lazio and Frosinone a 2-0 win at home to Torino.
How many goals are expected in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.20 for Cagliari and 3.00 for Frosinone. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists one player unavailable for Cagliari and no for Frosinone at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.