Genoa vs AC Milan match summary and prediction — Serie A
Our model makes AC Milan the pick at 39% for Genoa vs AC Milan. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Genoa face AC Milan on 8 November 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa. AC Milan are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie A is listed as Genoa - AC Milan. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Genoa: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.33 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.0 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -4.
AC Milan: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 1.86 and 1.86 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Genoa | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 5th |
| Goal difference | -4 | +9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 4 | 10 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 1.0 | 1.86 / 1.86 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.17 | 1.57 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 64.0 | 60.6 |
| Players unavailable | 1 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 39% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 0 | 3 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Genoa none wins, AC Milan three wins, three draws — an edge to AC Milan.
- Most recent meeting: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan on 17 May 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in four of the six — broadly an average game for goals.
- Pre-match form ratings: Genoa 64.0 versus AC Milan 60.6, a gap of 3.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans AC Milan's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards AC Milan at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Genoa or AC Milan?
AC Milan, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 33% Genoa, 28% the draw and 39% AC Milan.
When and where is Genoa vs AC Milan being played?
8 November 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Genoa and AC Milan?
Genoa 1-2 AC Milan on 17 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Genoa and AC Milan?
Genoa have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), AC Milan 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Genoa took a 2-1 win away at Lecce and AC Milan a 3-1 win at home to Inter.
How many goals are expected in Genoa vs AC Milan?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.40 for Genoa and 2.00 for AC Milan. It rates over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists one player unavailable for Genoa and no for AC Milan at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.