Monza vs Atalanta — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Atalanta travel to Monza needing a result to steady a season that has drifted — 13th and winless in five. Form, comparison data and the model's read, below.
The fixture at a glance
Monza face Atalanta on 8 November 2026. Monza are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie A is listed as Monza - Atalanta. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Monza: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 13 conceded in six matches, 1.33 and 2.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.2 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -7.
Atalanta: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 18 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 2.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.7 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -4. For a club of Atalanta's standing, that is a season off track rather than a slow start.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Monza | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWL | LDDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 12 | 8 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 2.17 | 1.43 / 2.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.67 | 0.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 33.2 | 40.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 1 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 34% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 6) | 0 | 6 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 6): Monza none wins, Atalanta six wins, none draws — an edge to Atalanta.
- Most recent meeting: Monza 0-4 Atalanta on 04 May 2025.
- Head-to-head goals: 3.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in two of the six — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Monza 33.2 versus Atalanta 40.7, a gap of 7.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Big club, bad season: Atalanta are 13th with a goal difference of -4 and winless in five — well short of where a club of their standing expects to be.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Atalanta's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Monza is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Monza or Atalanta?
Monza, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 39% Monza, 27% the draw and 34% Atalanta.
When and where is Monza vs Atalanta being played?
8 November 2026, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Monza and Atalanta?
Monza 0-4 Atalanta on 04 May 2025.
What is the recent form of Monza and Atalanta?
Monza have taken 3 points from their last five (LLLWL), Atalanta 2 from theirs (LDDLL). Most recently Monza took a 1-2 defeat away at Bologna and Atalanta a 0-3 defeat at home to Parma.
How many goals are expected in Monza vs Atalanta?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for Monza and 1.60 for Atalanta. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists no players unavailable for Monza and one for Atalanta at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.