Parma vs Bologna: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Bologna the pick at 54% for Parma vs Bologna. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Parma host Bologna on 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma. Bologna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 11 fixture in Serie A is listed as Parma - Bologna. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Parma: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 23 matches, 0.74 and 1.39 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.6 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Bologna: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (46 scored and 52 conceded in 41 matches, 1.12 and 1.27 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 65.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDLLL | WWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 11 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 23 | 41 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.74 / 1.39 | 1.12 / 1.27 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.09 | 1.37 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.6 | 65.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 19% | 54% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 3) | 2 | 0 |
Key match insights
- Head-to-head balance (last 3): Parma two wins, Bologna none wins, one draw — an edge to Parma.
- Most recent meeting: Bologna 0-1 Parma on 08 February 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 1.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in none of the three — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: Parma 36.6 versus Bologna 65.2, a gap of 28.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Bologna's way at 63%.
The call
The model tilts to Bologna at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Bologna's stronger recent metrics back it, the goals line points to under 2.5 goals and draw probability stays material given the head-to-head draw rate.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Parma or Bologna?
Bologna, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 19% Parma, 27% the draw and 54% Bologna.
When and where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Parma and Bologna?
Bologna 0-1 Parma on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Parma and Bologna?
Parma have taken 4 points from their last five (WDLLL), Bologna 12 from theirs (WWWLW). Most recently Parma took a 3-0 win away at Atalanta and Bologna a 2-1 win at home to Monza.
How many goals are expected in Parma vs Bologna?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.20 for Parma and 2.00 for Bologna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.