Toluca vs Atlas: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Toluca the pick at 76% for Toluca vs Atlas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Toluca face Atlas on 12 September 2026. Toluca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 76%. This apertura 8 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Toluca - Atlas. Kick-off is 23:05 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Toluca: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 18 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.3 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +8.
Atlas: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 22 conceded in 18 matches, 0.94 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Toluca | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 5th |
| Goal difference | +8 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | DLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 1 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.94 / 1.22 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.3 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 76% | 3% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Toluca 60.3 versus Atlas 48.6, a gap of 11.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 20%.
- First goal: Leans Toluca's way at 83%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Toluca at 76%, a gap of 55 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Toluca or Atlas?
Toluca, with an implied win probability of roughly 76%. The full split is 76% Toluca, 21% the draw and 3% Atlas.
When and where is Toluca vs Atlas being played?
12 September 2026, kick-off 23:05 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Toluca and Atlas?
Toluca 1-1 Atlas on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Toluca and Atlas?
Toluca have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Atlas 10 from theirs (DLWWW). Most recently Toluca took a 2-0 win at home to Monterrey and Atlas a 1-1 draw at home to Atlante FC.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Atlas?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for Toluca and 1.60 for Atlas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 20%, so its call is no.