Puebla vs Monterrey: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Puebla vs Monterrey. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Puebla host Monterrey on 22 October 2026 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This apertura 13 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Puebla - Monterrey. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Puebla: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 14 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Monterrey: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 17 conceded in 13 matches, 1.54 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Puebla | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLDL | DWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 2 / 4 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 2.0 | 1.54 / 1.31 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 34.8 | 42.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 17% | 31% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Puebla 34.8 versus Monterrey 42.2, a gap of 7.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Monterrey's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Monterrey's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Puebla or Monterrey?
Neither side. Our model splits it 17% Puebla, 52% the draw and 31% Monterrey, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Puebla vs Monterrey being played?
22 October 2026 at Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Puebla and Monterrey?
Monterrey 2-1 Puebla on 22 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Puebla and Monterrey?
Puebla have taken 3 points from their last five (DDLDL), Monterrey 8 from theirs (DWLWD). Most recently Puebla took a 0-0 draw away at Club Tijuana and Monterrey a 1-1 draw away at Club America.
How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Monterrey?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.60 for Puebla and 1.40 for Monterrey. It rates over 2.5 goals at 31%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.