Toluca vs Club Tijuana — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Toluca the pick at 75% for Toluca vs Club Tijuana. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toluca face Club Tijuana on 22 October 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Toluca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 75%. This apertura 13 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Toluca - Club Tijuana. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Toluca: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 18 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +10.
Club Tijuana: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 14 conceded in 14 matches, 1.07 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Toluca | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 9th |
| Goal difference | +10 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLDL | DDLDL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 12 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.07 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.33 | 1.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.2 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 75% | 3% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Toluca 44.2 versus Club Tijuana 35.2, a gap of 8.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 26% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Toluca's way at 80%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Toluca at 75%, a gap of 53 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Toluca's way, especially at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Toluca or Club Tijuana?
Toluca, with an implied win probability of roughly 75%. The full split is 75% Toluca, 22% the draw and 3% Club Tijuana.
When and where is Toluca vs Club Tijuana being played?
22 October 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Toluca and Club Tijuana?
Toluca 1-0 Club Tijuana on 14 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Toluca and Club Tijuana?
Toluca have taken 2 points from their last five (DLLDL), Club Tijuana 3 from theirs (DDLDL). Most recently Toluca took a 1-1 draw at home to Atletico San Luis and Club Tijuana a 0-0 draw at home to Puebla.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Club Tijuana?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.40 for Toluca and 0.80 for Club Tijuana. It rates over 2.5 goals at 26%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.