CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
CF Pachuca face Cruz Azul on 22 October 2026 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This apertura 13 fixture in Liga MX is listed as CF Pachuca - Cruz Azul. Kick-off is 03:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
CF Pachuca: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 8 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of +4.
Cruz Azul: they come in on the back of a win, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 17 conceded in 13 matches, 2.15 and 1.31 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | CF Pachuca | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 5th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWW | WDDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 11 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.57 / 1.14 | 2.15 / 1.31 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.29 | 2.23 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.7 | 53.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 28% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 97% and both teams to score at 68%.
- First goal: Leans CF Pachuca's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Cruz Azul's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: CF Pachuca or Cruz Azul?
Neither side. Our model splits it 28% CF Pachuca, 52% the draw and 20% Cruz Azul, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul being played?
22 October 2026 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto, kick-off 03:00 UTC.
Have CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul?
CF Pachuca have taken 8 points from their last five (DLDWW), Cruz Azul 6 from theirs (WDDDL). Most recently CF Pachuca took a 3-3 draw at home to Necaxa and Cruz Azul a 5-0 win at home to FC Juarez.
How many goals are expected in CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.40 for CF Pachuca and 2.80 for Cruz Azul. It rates over 2.5 goals at 97%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 68%, so its call is yes.