Necaxa vs FC Juarez: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Necaxa the pick at 51% for Necaxa vs FC Juarez. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Necaxa host FC Juarez on 24 October 2026 at Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes. Necaxa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This apertura 14 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Necaxa - FC Juarez. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Necaxa: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 0.71 and 1.86 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.6 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -11.
FC Juarez: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (7 scored and 20 conceded in eight matches, 0.88 and 2.5 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.3 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -24.
Side by side
| Statistic | Necaxa | FC Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 18th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -24 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 13 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.71 / 1.86 | 0.88 / 2.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.57 | 0.75 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.6 | 32.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Necaxa 25.6 versus FC Juarez 32.3, a gap of 6.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.20, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Necaxa's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Necaxa at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Necaxa's way, especially at Estadio Victoria.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Necaxa or FC Juarez?
Necaxa, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Necaxa, 23% the draw and 27% FC Juarez.
When and where is Necaxa vs FC Juarez being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
Have Necaxa and FC Juarez met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Necaxa and FC Juarez?
Necaxa have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), FC Juarez 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently Necaxa took a 0-1 defeat away at Guadalajara Chivas and FC Juarez a 0-1 defeat at home to Atlante FC.
How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs FC Juarez?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.20 — 0.40 for Necaxa and 0.80 for FC Juarez. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.