Leon vs Toluca: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Toluca the pick at 43% for Leon vs Toluca. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toluca travel to Leon on 24 October 2026 at Estadio León, Leon. Toluca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This apertura 14 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Leon - Toluca. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Leon: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 14 conceded in nine matches, 1.78 and 1.56 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Toluca: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 16 conceded in 16 matches, 2.44 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Leon | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWD | DDLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 9 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 9 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.78 / 1.56 | 2.44 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.4 | 37.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 31% | 43% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Leon 52.4 versus Toluca 37.5, a gap of 14.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Toluca's way at 56%.
The call
The model edges towards Toluca at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Leon's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Leon or Toluca?
Toluca, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 31% Leon, 26% the draw and 43% Toluca.
When and where is Leon vs Toluca being played?
24 October 2026 at Estadio León, Leon, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Leon and Toluca?
Toluca 4-1 Leon on 26 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Leon and Toluca?
Leon have taken 8 points from their last five (WLDWD), Toluca 3 from theirs (DDLLD). Most recently Leon took a 2-0 win away at Tigres UANL and Toluca a 2-2 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
How many goals are expected in Leon vs Toluca?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.00 for Leon and 2.20 for Toluca. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.