Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Club Tijuana the pick at 53% for Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Club Tijuana face Santos Laguna on 26 October 2026 at Estadio Caliente, Tijuana. Club Tijuana are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This apertura 14 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Club Tijuana - Santos Laguna. Kick-off is 03:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Club Tijuana: they come in on three successive draws, following one draw and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (3 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 0.5 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Santos Laguna: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 14 conceded in seven matches, 0.71 and 2.0 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 75.8 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Club Tijuana | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDLD | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 8 | 13 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.5 / 0.83 | 0.71 / 2.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.83 | 0.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.6 | 75.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Club Tijuana 38.6 versus Santos Laguna 75.8, a gap of 37.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 0.60, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Club Tijuana's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Club Tijuana at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Santos Laguna's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Club Tijuana's way, especially at Estadio Caliente.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Club Tijuana or Santos Laguna?
Club Tijuana, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Club Tijuana, 23% the draw and 24% Santos Laguna.
When and where is Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna being played?
26 October 2026 at Estadio Caliente, Tijuana, kick-off 03:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna?
Club Tijuana 1-2 Santos Laguna on 09 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Club Tijuana and Santos Laguna?
Club Tijuana have taken 4 points from their last five (DDDLD), Santos Laguna 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Club Tijuana took a 2-2 draw away at Toluca and Santos Laguna a 2-0 win at home to U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
How many goals are expected in Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?
The model's combined scoring line is 0.60 — 0.00 for Club Tijuana and 0.60 for Santos Laguna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.