Cruz Azul vs Leon — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Cruz Azul the pick at 71% for Cruz Azul vs Leon. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Leon travel to Cruz Azul on 2 November 2026 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. Cruz Azul are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This apertura 15 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Cruz Azul - Leon. Kick-off is 01:10 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Cruz Azul: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 19 conceded in 16 matches, 2.38 and 1.19 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.9 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +9.
Leon: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 15 conceded in ten matches, 1.7 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cruz Azul | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +9 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWDD | DWLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 5 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 16 | 10 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.38 / 1.19 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.38 | 1.9 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.9 | 52.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 12% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cruz Azul 63.9 versus Leon 52.4, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.60, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Cruz Azul's way at 71%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Cruz Azul at 71%, a gap of 55 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cruz Azul's way, especially at Estadio Banorte.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cruz Azul or Leon?
Cruz Azul, with an implied win probability of roughly 71%. The full split is 71% Cruz Azul, 17% the draw and 12% Leon.
When and where is Cruz Azul vs Leon being played?
2 November 2026 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City, kick-off 01:10 UTC.
Have Cruz Azul and Leon met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cruz Azul and Leon?
Cruz Azul have taken 11 points from their last five (WWWDD), Leon 8 from theirs (DWLDW). Most recently Cruz Azul took a 3-1 win away at Club Queretaro and Leon a 1-1 draw at home to Toluca.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Leon?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.60 — 3.00 for Cruz Azul and 1.60 for Leon. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.