Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Cruz Azul the pick at 53% for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tigres UANL face Cruz Azul on 7 November 2026 at Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza. Cruz Azul are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This apertura 16 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Tigres UANL: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (24 scored and 24 conceded in 19 matches, 1.26 and 1.26 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -7.
Cruz Azul: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 20 conceded in 17 matches, 2.35 and 1.18 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 70.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +10.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Tigres UANL | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | -7 | +10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDW | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 9 | 15 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.26 / 1.26 | 2.35 / 1.18 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.26 | 2.41 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.9 | 70.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 53% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Tigres UANL 39.9 versus Cruz Azul 70.8, a gap of 30.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Cruz Azul's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Cruz Azul at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Cruz Azul's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tigres UANL or Cruz Azul?
Cruz Azul, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 25% Tigres UANL, 22% the draw and 53% Cruz Azul.
When and where is Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Have Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul?
Tigres UANL have taken 5 points from their last five (LDLDW), Cruz Azul 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently Tigres UANL took a 0-3 defeat away at CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul a 2-1 win at home to Leon.
How many goals are expected in Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 0.60 for Tigres UANL and 3.20 for Cruz Azul. It rates over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.