Toluca vs Monterrey: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Toluca the pick at 51% for Toluca vs Monterrey. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Toluca face Monterrey on 8 November 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Toluca are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This apertura 16 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Toluca - Monterrey. Kick-off is 01:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Toluca: they come in on four successive draws, following one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (44 scored and 21 conceded in 19 matches, 2.32 and 1.11 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +10.
Monterrey: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 1.69 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +10 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDDDL | DLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 19 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.32 / 1.11 | 1.69 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.84 | 1.56 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.8 | 52.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Toluca 40.8 versus Monterrey 52.9, a gap of 12.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Toluca's way at 57%.
The call
The model tilts to Toluca at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Monterrey's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Toluca's way, especially at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Toluca or Monterrey?
Toluca, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Toluca, 21% the draw and 28% Monterrey.
When and where is Toluca vs Monterrey being played?
8 November 2026 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca, kick-off 01:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Toluca and Monterrey?
Toluca 2-0 Monterrey on 07 September 2026.
What is the recent form of Toluca and Monterrey?
Toluca have taken 4 points from their last five (DDDDL), Monterrey 8 from theirs (DLWWD). Most recently Toluca took a 2-2 draw away at Club America and Monterrey a 3-3 draw at home to Club Tijuana.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Monterrey?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.20 for Toluca and 1.40 for Monterrey. It rates over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.