Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas match summary and prediction — Liga MX
Our model makes Guadalajara Chivas the pick at 41% for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Leon face Guadalajara Chivas on 9 November 2026 at Estadio León, Leon. Guadalajara Chivas are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This apertura 16 fixture in Liga MX is listed as Leon - Guadalajara Chivas. Kick-off is 02:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Leon: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 17 conceded in eleven matches, 1.64 and 1.55 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Guadalajara Chivas: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 8 conceded in nine matches, 1.67 and 0.89 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.4 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Leon | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | +2 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLD | WWWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 9 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 11 | 9 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.64 / 1.55 | 1.67 / 0.89 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.73 | 1.89 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.2 | 64.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 34% | 41% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Leon 42.2 versus Guadalajara Chivas 64.4, a gap of 22.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Guadalajara Chivas' way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Guadalajara Chivas at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Leon or Guadalajara Chivas?
Guadalajara Chivas, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 34% Leon, 25% the draw and 41% Guadalajara Chivas.
When and where is Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas being played?
9 November 2026 at Estadio León, Leon, kick-off 02:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Leon and Guadalajara Chivas?
Guadalajara Chivas 5-0 Leon on 19 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Leon and Guadalajara Chivas?
Leon have taken 5 points from their last five (LDWLD), Guadalajara Chivas 11 from theirs (WWWDD). Most recently Leon took a 1-2 defeat away at Cruz Azul and Guadalajara Chivas a 4-2 win at home to Atlante FC.
How many goals are expected in Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 1.60 for Leon and 2.60 for Guadalajara Chivas. It rates over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.