Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia match summary and prediction — First League
Our model makes Cherno More Varna the pick at 56% for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Cherno More Varna face Septemvri Sofia on 24 October 2026 at Ticha, Varna. Cherno More Varna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 12 fixture in First League is listed as Cherno More Varna - Septemvri Sofia. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cherno More Varna: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.9 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -11.
Septemvri Sofia: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.6 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cherno More Varna | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLLW | LLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 8 | 4 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.9 | 25.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 24% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Cherno More Varna 28.9 versus Septemvri Sofia 25.6, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Cherno More Varna's way at 55%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Cherno More Varna at 56%, a gap of 33 percentage points to the next outcome. Cherno More Varna's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cherno More Varna's way, especially at Ticha.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cherno More Varna or Septemvri Sofia?
Cherno More Varna, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Cherno More Varna, 20% the draw and 24% Septemvri Sofia.
When and where is Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia being played?
24 October 2026 at Ticha, Varna, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia?
Cherno More Varna have taken 6 points from their last five (LWLLW), Septemvri Sofia 0 from theirs (LLLL). Most recently Cherno More Varna took a 0-1 defeat at home to Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia a 1-2 defeat away at Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.00 for Cherno More Varna and 1.50 for Septemvri Sofia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.