Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna match summary and prediction — First League
Our model makes Dunav Ruse the pick at 41% for Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Dunav Ruse face Spartak Varna on 24 October 2026 at Gradski Stadium, Ruse. Dunav Ruse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 12 fixture in First League is listed as Dunav Ruse - Spartak Varna. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Dunav Ruse: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored nine and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -8.
Spartak Varna: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Dunav Ruse | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -8 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLD | WWLDD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.7 | 44.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Dunav Ruse 39.7 versus Spartak Varna 44.0, a gap of 4.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Dunav Ruse's way at 47%.
The call
The model edges towards Dunav Ruse at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Dunav Ruse's way, especially at Gradski Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dunav Ruse or Spartak Varna?
Dunav Ruse, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Dunav Ruse, 28% the draw and 31% Spartak Varna.
When and where is Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna being played?
24 October 2026 at Gradski Stadium, Ruse, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna?
Dunav Ruse have taken 8 points from their last five (WWDLD), Spartak Varna 8 from theirs (WWLDD). Most recently Dunav Ruse took a 3-2 win away at Rilski Sportist and Spartak Varna a 4-2 win away at Etar Veliko Tarnovo.
How many goals are expected in Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 0.50 for Dunav Ruse and 0.50 for Spartak Varna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.