Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Botev Vratsa the pick at 41% for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lokomotiv Sofia face Botev Vratsa on 24 October 2026 at Lokomotiv Stadium, Sofia. Botev Vratsa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 12 fixture in First League is listed as Lokomotiv Sofia - Botev Vratsa. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lokomotiv Sofia: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those five they scored eight and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.9 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -7.
Botev Vratsa: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Lokomotiv Sofia | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -7 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWWL | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 5 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.9 | 38.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 41% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lokomotiv Sofia 39.9 versus Botev Vratsa 38.9, a gap of 1.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Botev Vratsa's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Botev Vratsa at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Lokomotiv Sofia's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lokomotiv Sofia or Botev Vratsa?
Botev Vratsa, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 29% Lokomotiv Sofia, 30% the draw and 41% Botev Vratsa.
When and where is Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa being played?
24 October 2026 at Lokomotiv Stadium, Sofia, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Have Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa?
Lokomotiv Sofia have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWWL), Botev Vratsa 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently Lokomotiv Sofia took a 2-1 win away at Vihren and Botev Vratsa a 2-1 win away at Fratria.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.50 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.50 for Botev Vratsa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.