Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Septemvri Sofia the pick at 47% for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Septemvri Sofia host Lokomotiv Sofia on 6 November 2026. Septemvri Sofia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 13 fixture in First League is listed as Septemvri Sofia - Lokomotiv Sofia. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Septemvri Sofia: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -13.
Lokomotiv Sofia: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded nine, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Septemvri Sofia | Lokomotiv Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -13 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLL | LDWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 10 | 10 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 21.8 | 39.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 27% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Septemvri Sofia 21.8 versus Lokomotiv Sofia 39.2, a gap of 17.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.50, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Septemvri Sofia's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to Septemvri Sofia at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Lokomotiv Sofia's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Septemvri Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia?
Septemvri Sofia, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Septemvri Sofia, 27% the draw and 27% Lokomotiv Sofia.
When and where is Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia being played?
6 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia?
Septemvri Sofia have taken 0 points from their last four (LLLL), Lokomotiv Sofia 8 from theirs (LDWDW). Most recently Septemvri Sofia took a 0-2 defeat away at Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia a 2-5 defeat at home to Botev Plovdiv.
How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.50 — 1.00 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.50 for Lokomotiv Sofia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.