Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna match summary and prediction — First League
There is barely anything between Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Cherno More Varna travel to Slavia Sofia on 7 November 2026 at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia. Slavia Sofia are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 13 fixture in First League is listed as Slavia Sofia - Cherno More Varna. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Slavia Sofia: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored five and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.0 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Cherno More Varna: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.7 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Slavia Sofia | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 9th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWLW | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 2 | 6 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.0 | 49.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 32% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Slavia Sofia 35.0 versus Cherno More Varna 49.7, a gap of 14.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.65, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Slavia Sofia's way at 48%.
The call
The model does not commit. Slavia Sofia is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Slavia Sofia's way, especially at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Slavia Sofia or Cherno More Varna?
Slavia Sofia, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% Slavia Sofia, 31% the draw and 32% Cherno More Varna.
When and where is Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov, Sofia, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna?
Slavia Sofia have taken 8 points from their last five (DDWLW), Cherno More Varna 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Slavia Sofia took a 0-0 draw away at CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna a 1-0 win at home to Botev Vratsa.
How many goals are expected in Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.65 — 0.40 for Slavia Sofia and 1.25 for Cherno More Varna. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.