Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: the numbers, the form and our prediction
There is barely anything between Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Spartak Varna host Arda Kardzhali on 8 November 2026 at Stadion Spartak, Varna. Spartak Varna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 13 fixture in First League is listed as Spartak Varna - Arda Kardzhali. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Spartak Varna: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded eleven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.6 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -11.
Arda Kardzhali: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored five and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Spartak Varna | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WDWLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.6 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 36% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Spartak Varna 35.6 versus Arda Kardzhali 41.4, a gap of 5.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Spartak Varna's way at 48%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Spartak Varna is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. Arda Kardzhali's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Spartak Varna's way, especially at Stadion Spartak.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Spartak Varna or Arda Kardzhali?
Spartak Varna, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Spartak Varna, 26% the draw and 36% Arda Kardzhali.
When and where is Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali being played?
8 November 2026 at Stadion Spartak, Varna, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali?
Spartak Varna have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Arda Kardzhali 7 from theirs (WDWLL). Most recently Spartak Varna took a 1-6 defeat away at CSKA 1948 and Arda Kardzhali a 2-1 win at home to Septemvri Sofia.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.50 for Spartak Varna and 1.50 for Arda Kardzhali. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.