Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia match summary and prediction — First League
Our model makes Arda Kardzhali the pick at 50% for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Arda Kardzhali face Septemvri Sofia on 2 November 2026 at Arena Arda, Kerdjali. Arda Kardzhali are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 14 fixture in First League is listed as Arda Kardzhali - Septemvri Sofia. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Arda Kardzhali: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -2.
Septemvri Sofia: they come in on four defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and four defeats from the last four, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those four they scored three and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Arda Kardzhali | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLLD | LLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 10 | 3 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.2 | 21.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Arda Kardzhali 31.2 versus Septemvri Sofia 21.8, a gap of 9.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.33, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Arda Kardzhali's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Arda Kardzhali at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Arda Kardzhali's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Arda Kardzhali's way, especially at Arena Arda.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arda Kardzhali or Septemvri Sofia?
Arda Kardzhali, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Arda Kardzhali, 25% the draw and 26% Septemvri Sofia.
When and where is Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia being played?
2 November 2026 at Arena Arda, Kerdjali, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Have Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia?
Arda Kardzhali have taken 5 points from their last five (DWLLD), Septemvri Sofia 0 from theirs (LLLL). Most recently Arda Kardzhali took a 1-1 draw at home to Levski Sofia and Septemvri Sofia a 0-2 defeat away at Cherno More Varna.
How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.33 — 1.33 for Arda Kardzhali and 1.00 for Septemvri Sofia. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.