Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Cherno More Varna the pick at 48% for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Cherno More Varna face Botev Vratsa on 2 November 2026 at Ticha Stadium, Varna. Cherno More Varna are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 14 fixture in First League is listed as Cherno More Varna - Botev Vratsa. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Cherno More Varna: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded eight, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.4 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -9.
Botev Vratsa: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | Cherno More Varna | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLL | DWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.4 | 42.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Cherno More Varna 39.4 versus Botev Vratsa 42.2, a gap of 2.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.67, over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 43%.
- First goal: Leans Cherno More Varna's way at 53%.
The call
The model tilts to Cherno More Varna at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Cherno More Varna's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Cherno More Varna's way, especially at Ticha Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Cherno More Varna or Botev Vratsa?
Cherno More Varna, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Cherno More Varna, 26% the draw and 26% Botev Vratsa.
When and where is Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa being played?
2 November 2026 at Ticha Stadium, Varna, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa?
Cherno More Varna have taken 6 points from their last five (WLWLL), Botev Vratsa 4 from theirs (DWLLL). Most recently Cherno More Varna took a 2-0 win at home to Septemvri Sofia and Botev Vratsa a 1-1 draw away at Lokomotiv Sofia.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.67 — 1.33 for Cherno More Varna and 1.33 for Botev Vratsa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 43%, so its call is no.