Roda vs Vitesse match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Roda the pick at 54% for Roda vs Vitesse. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Roda face Vitesse on 12 September 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade. Roda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 6 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Roda - Vitesse. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Roda: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +1.
Vitesse: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 22 conceded in 18 matches, 1.72 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Roda | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWWL | WWLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 5 | 10 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.37 | 1.72 / 1.22 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 1.61 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.9 | 59.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 9% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Roda 51.9 versus Vitesse 59.1, a gap of 7.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 18% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Roda's way at 63%.
The call
The model tilts to Roda at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Roda's way, especially at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Roda or Vitesse?
Roda, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Roda, 37% the draw and 9% Vitesse.
When and where is Roda vs Vitesse being played?
12 September 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Roda and Vitesse?
Roda 0-1 Vitesse on 16 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Roda and Vitesse?
Roda have taken 8 points from their last five (DDWWL), Vitesse 10 from theirs (WWLWD). Most recently Roda took a 1-1 draw away at MVV and Vitesse a 2-1 win at home to FC OSS.
How many goals are expected in Roda vs Vitesse?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 2.00 for Roda and 1.00 for Vitesse. It rates over 2.5 goals at 18%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.