De Graafschap vs NAC Breda — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes De Graafschap the pick at 85% for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
De Graafschap face NAC Breda on 20 September 2026 at De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. De Graafschap are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 85%. This matchday 7 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as De Graafschap - NAC Breda. Kick-off is 14:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
De Graafschap: they come in on the back of a win, following four defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.0 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.2 out of 100, and they sit 19th on a goal difference of -11.
NAC Breda: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 28 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.65 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | De Graafschap | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -11 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLL | LLDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 17 | 9 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.44 | 0.94 / 1.65 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.62 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 32.2 | 37.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 85% | 1% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: De Graafschap 32.2 versus NAC Breda 37.6, a gap of 5.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.50, over 2.5 goals at 93% and both teams to score at 17%.
- First goal: Leans De Graafschap's way at 85%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards De Graafschap at 85%, a gap of 72 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts De Graafschap's way, especially at De Vijverberg.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: De Graafschap or NAC Breda?
De Graafschap, with an implied win probability of roughly 85%. The full split is 85% De Graafschap, 14% the draw and 1% NAC Breda.
When and where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
20 September 2026 at De Vijverberg, Doetinchem, kick-off 14:45 UTC.
Have De Graafschap and NAC Breda met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
De Graafschap have taken 3 points from their last five (WLLLL), NAC Breda 4 from theirs (LLDWL). Most recently De Graafschap took a 2-1 win away at Emmen and NAC Breda a 2-3 defeat at home to Jong Utrecht.
How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.50 — 3.50 for De Graafschap and 1.00 for NAC Breda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 93%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 17%, so its call is no.