Helmond Sport vs Heracles: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Helmond Sport the pick at 69% for Helmond Sport vs Heracles. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Helmond Sport face Heracles on 2 October 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond. Helmond Sport are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 9 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Helmond Sport - Heracles. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Helmond Sport: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 26 conceded in 17 matches, 0.76 and 1.53 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -1.
Heracles: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 35 conceded in 15 matches, 0.73 and 2.33 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +16.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Helmond Sport | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +16 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWL | WLWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 10 | 13 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.76 / 1.53 | 0.73 / 2.33 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.88 | 0.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 69.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 5% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Helmond Sport 44.8 versus Heracles 69.0, a gap of 24.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.93, over 2.5 goals at 96% and both teams to score at 23%.
- First goal: Leans Helmond Sport's way at 80%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Helmond Sport at 69%, a gap of 43 percentage points to the next outcome. Heracles' stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Helmond Sport's way, especially at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Helmond Sport or Heracles?
Helmond Sport, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% Helmond Sport, 26% the draw and 5% Heracles.
When and where is Helmond Sport vs Heracles being played?
2 October 2026 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Helmond Sport and Heracles met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Helmond Sport and Heracles?
Helmond Sport have taken 6 points from their last five (LLWWL), Heracles 12 from theirs (WLWWW). Most recently Helmond Sport took a 0-2 defeat away at MVV and Heracles a 2-0 win at home to Vitesse.
How many goals are expected in Helmond Sport vs Heracles?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.93 — 2.33 for Helmond Sport and 1.60 for Heracles. It rates over 2.5 goals at 96%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 23%, so its call is no.