Vitesse vs NAC Breda — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Vitesse the pick at 58% for Vitesse vs NAC Breda. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Vitesse face NAC Breda on 3 October 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem. Vitesse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 58%. This matchday 9 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Vitesse - NAC Breda. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Vitesse: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 22 conceded in 18 matches, 1.72 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
NAC Breda: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 28 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.65 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.3 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWW | WWLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 12 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.72 / 1.22 | 0.94 / 1.65 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.5 | 48.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 58% | 8% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Vitesse 55.5 versus NAC Breda 48.3, a gap of 7.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Vitesse's way at 71%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Vitesse at 58%, a gap of 23 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Vitesse's way, especially at GelreDome.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vitesse or NAC Breda?
Vitesse, with an implied win probability of roughly 58%. The full split is 58% Vitesse, 34% the draw and 8% NAC Breda.
When and where is Vitesse vs NAC Breda being played?
3 October 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Have Vitesse and NAC Breda met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Vitesse and NAC Breda?
Vitesse have taken 9 points from their last five (LWLWW), NAC Breda 7 from theirs (WWLLD). Most recently Vitesse took a 0-2 defeat away at Heracles and NAC Breda a 4-2 win at home to FC Eindhoven.
How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs NAC Breda?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Vitesse and 1.40 for NAC Breda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 21%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.