Almere City FC vs FC Volendam — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for Almere City FC vs FC Volendam. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Volendam travel to Almere City FC on 3 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Almere City FC - FC Volendam. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Almere City FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 35 conceded in 20 matches, 2.05 and 1.75 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 57.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
FC Volendam: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 23 conceded in 17 matches, 0.65 and 1.35 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Almere City FC | FC Volendam |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 11th |
| Goal difference | +11 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | WLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 15 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.05 / 1.75 | 0.65 / 1.35 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.6 | 0.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 57.8 | 56.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 24% | 24% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Almere City FC 57.8 versus FC Volendam 56.0, a gap of 1.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.33, over 2.5 goals at 98% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Almere City FC's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Almere City FC or FC Volendam?
Neither side. Our model splits it 24% Almere City FC, 51% the draw and 24% FC Volendam, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Almere City FC vs FC Volendam being played?
3 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Have Almere City FC and FC Volendam met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Almere City FC and FC Volendam?
Almere City FC have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), FC Volendam 9 from theirs (WLWLW). Most recently Almere City FC took a 2-3 defeat away at Dordrecht and FC Volendam a 3-2 win at home to VVV Venlo.
How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs FC Volendam?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.33 — 2.33 for Almere City FC and 2.00 for FC Volendam. It rates over 2.5 goals at 98%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.