Waalwijk vs Emmen — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 46% for Waalwijk vs Emmen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Waalwijk face Emmen on 3 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 46%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Waalwijk - Emmen. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Waalwijk: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 2.16 and 1.42 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.1 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +7.
Emmen: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 29 conceded in 15 matches, 1.2 and 1.93 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Waalwijk | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 6th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | WLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 7 | 8 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.16 / 1.42 | 1.2 / 1.93 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.74 | 0.93 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.1 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 39% | 15% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Waalwijk 60.1 versus Emmen 45.2, a gap of 14.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.90, over 2.5 goals at 94% and both teams to score at 68%.
- First goal: Leans Waalwijk's way at 57%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 46%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Waalwijk or Emmen?
Neither side. Our model splits it 39% Waalwijk, 46% the draw and 15% Emmen, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Waalwijk vs Emmen being played?
3 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Waalwijk 5-0 Emmen on 10 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Waalwijk and Emmen?
Waalwijk have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), Emmen 6 from theirs (WLLWL). Most recently Waalwijk took a 0-2 defeat away at Roda and Emmen a 1-0 win at home to FC OSS.
How many goals are expected in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.90 — 2.40 for Waalwijk and 2.50 for Emmen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 94%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 68%, so its call is yes.