Almere City FC vs Roda match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Almere City FC the pick at 53% for Almere City FC vs Roda. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Almere City FC face Roda on 23 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere. Almere City FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Almere City FC - Roda. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Almere City FC: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 35 conceded in 20 matches, 2.05 and 1.75 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.5 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +14.
Roda: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Almere City FC | Roda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 7th |
| Goal difference | +14 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLW | DLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 4 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.05 / 1.75 | 1.32 / 1.37 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.6 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.5 | 52.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 10% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Almere City FC 58.5 versus Roda 52.2, a gap of 6.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.67, over 2.5 goals at 88% and both teams to score at 39%.
- First goal: Leans Almere City FC's way at 69%.
The call
The model tilts to Almere City FC at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Almere City FC's way, especially at Yanmar Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Almere City FC or Roda?
Almere City FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Almere City FC, 37% the draw and 10% Roda.
When and where is Almere City FC vs Roda being played?
23 October 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Almere City FC and Roda?
Almere City FC 1-2 Roda on 30 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Almere City FC and Roda?
Almere City FC have taken 9 points from their last five (LWWLW), Roda 8 from theirs (DLWDW). Most recently Almere City FC took a 1-2 defeat away at Emmen and Roda a 1-1 draw at home to Jong PSV U21.
How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Roda?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.67 — 2.33 for Almere City FC and 1.33 for Roda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 88%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 39%, so its call is no.