De Graafschap vs Waalwijk: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes De Graafschap the pick at 48% for De Graafschap vs Waalwijk. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
De Graafschap host Waalwijk on 23 October 2026 at De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. De Graafschap are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as De Graafschap - Waalwijk. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
De Graafschap: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.0 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -10.
Waalwijk: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 2.16 and 1.42 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.7 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | De Graafschap | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -10 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | DLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 1.44 | 2.16 / 1.42 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.62 | 1.74 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.8 | 42.7 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 11% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: De Graafschap 55.8 versus Waalwijk 42.7, a gap of 13.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.65, over 2.5 goals at 91% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans De Graafschap's way at 63%.
The call
The model edges towards De Graafschap at 48%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. De Graafschap's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts De Graafschap's way, especially at De Vijverberg.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: De Graafschap or Waalwijk?
De Graafschap, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% De Graafschap, 41% the draw and 11% Waalwijk.
When and where is De Graafschap vs Waalwijk being played?
23 October 2026 at De Vijverberg, Doetinchem, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
De Graafschap 2-4 Waalwijk on 23 January 2026.
What is the recent form of De Graafschap and Waalwijk?
De Graafschap have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), Waalwijk 5 from theirs (DLDLW). Most recently De Graafschap took a 2-1 win at home to Jong Utrecht and Waalwijk a 1-1 draw at home to FC Volendam.
How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs Waalwijk?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.65 — 2.25 for De Graafschap and 2.40 for Waalwijk. It rates over 2.5 goals at 91%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.