Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Jong AZ the pick at 71% for Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Helmond Sport travel to Jong AZ on 23 October 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer. Jong AZ are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 71%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Jong AZ - Helmond Sport. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Jong AZ: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 35 conceded in 17 matches, 1.65 and 2.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.7 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +4.
Helmond Sport: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 26 conceded in 17 matches, 0.76 and 1.53 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 27.1 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Jong AZ | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 17th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWDL | LLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 10 | 4 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.65 / 2.06 | 0.76 / 1.53 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 0.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.7 | 27.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 71% | 5% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Jong AZ 42.7 versus Helmond Sport 27.1, a gap of 15.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.93, over 2.5 goals at 98% and both teams to score at 29%.
- First goal: Leans Jong AZ's way at 77%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Jong AZ at 71%, a gap of 47 percentage points to the next outcome. Jong AZ's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Jong AZ's way, especially at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Jong AZ or Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ, with an implied win probability of roughly 71%. The full split is 71% Jong AZ, 24% the draw and 5% Helmond Sport.
When and where is Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport being played?
23 October 2026 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Jong AZ and Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ 2-0 Helmond Sport on 03 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Jong AZ and Helmond Sport?
Jong AZ have taken 5 points from their last five (DLWDL), Helmond Sport 1 from theirs (LLDLL). Most recently Jong AZ took a 4-4 draw away at VVV Venlo and Helmond Sport a 0-2 defeat at home to NAC Breda.
How many goals are expected in Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.93 — 2.60 for Jong AZ and 2.33 for Helmond Sport. It rates over 2.5 goals at 98%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 29%, so its call is no.