NAC Breda vs Heracles — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes NAC Breda the pick at 64% for NAC Breda vs Heracles. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Heracles travel to NAC Breda on 23 October 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda. NAC Breda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 12 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as NAC Breda - Heracles. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
NAC Breda: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 28 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.65 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 69.1 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Heracles: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 35 conceded in 15 matches, 0.73 and 2.33 per game) underlines issues at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 64.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +23.
Comparison data
| Statistic | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +23 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 5 | 12 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.94 / 1.65 | 0.73 / 2.33 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 69.1 | 64.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 6% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: NAC Breda 69.1 versus Heracles 64.1, a gap of 5.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 23%.
- First goal: Leans NAC Breda's way at 78%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards NAC Breda at 64%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts NAC Breda's way, especially at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: NAC Breda or Heracles?
NAC Breda, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% NAC Breda, 30% the draw and 6% Heracles.
When and where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
23 October 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda on 14 February 2026.
What is the recent form of NAC Breda and Heracles?
NAC Breda have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Heracles 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently NAC Breda took a 2-0 win away at Helmond Sport and Heracles a 5-1 win away at MVV.
How many goals are expected in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.40 for NAC Breda and 1.60 for Heracles. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 23%, so its call is no.