Vitesse vs Emmen: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 49% for Vitesse vs Emmen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Vitesse face Emmen on 23 October 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 49%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 12 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Vitesse - Emmen. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vitesse: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 22 conceded in 18 matches, 1.72 and 1.22 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +1.
Emmen: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 29 conceded in 15 matches, 1.2 and 1.93 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vitesse | Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLW | WWDWL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.72 / 1.22 | 1.2 / 1.93 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 0.93 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.6 | 59.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 13% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Vitesse 48.6 versus Emmen 59.6, a gap of 11.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.50, over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Emmen's way at 60%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 49%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vitesse or Emmen?
Neither side. Our model splits it 13% Vitesse, 49% the draw and 37% Emmen, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Vitesse vs Emmen being played?
23 October 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vitesse and Emmen?
Vitesse 3-3 Emmen on 03 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Vitesse and Emmen?
Vitesse have taken 7 points from their last five (WLDLW), Emmen 10 from theirs (WWDWL). Most recently Vitesse took a 1-0 win away at FC Eindhoven and Emmen a 2-1 win at home to Almere City FC.
How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs Emmen?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.50 — 1.00 for Vitesse and 2.50 for Emmen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.