FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC Volendam the pick at 43% for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
FC Volendam face De Graafschap on 30 October 2026 at Kras Stadion, Volendam. FC Volendam are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 13 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as FC Volendam - De Graafschap. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
FC Volendam: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 23 conceded in 17 matches, 0.65 and 1.35 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 60.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +9.
De Graafschap: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.0 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.9 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -11.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Volendam | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +9 | -11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWLW | DLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 12 / 6 | 7 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.65 / 1.35 | 2.0 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.71 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 60.6 | 48.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Volendam 60.6 versus De Graafschap 48.9, a gap of 11.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 65%.
- First goal: Leans FC Volendam's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards FC Volendam at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Volendam's way, especially at Kras Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Volendam or De Graafschap?
FC Volendam, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% FC Volendam, 23% the draw and 34% De Graafschap.
When and where is FC Volendam vs De Graafschap being played?
30 October 2026 at Kras Stadion, Volendam, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have FC Volendam and De Graafschap met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC Volendam and De Graafschap?
FC Volendam have taken 10 points from their last five (WDWLW), De Graafschap 8 from theirs (DLWDW). Most recently FC Volendam took a 6-2 win at home to Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap a 1-1 draw at home to Waalwijk.
How many goals are expected in FC Volendam vs De Graafschap?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 2.80 for FC Volendam and 0.80 for De Graafschap. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 65%, so its call is yes.