Roda vs Jong AZ: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Roda the pick at 51% for Roda vs Jong AZ. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Jong AZ travel to Roda on 30 October 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade. Roda are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 13 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Roda - Jong AZ. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Roda: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 26 conceded in 19 matches, 1.32 and 1.37 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Jong AZ: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 35 conceded in 17 matches, 1.65 and 2.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.9 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +5.
Side by side
| Statistic | Roda | Jong AZ |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDLW | WDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 14 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.32 / 1.37 | 1.65 / 2.06 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.21 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.3 | 52.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Roda 59.3 versus Jong AZ 52.9, a gap of 6.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Roda's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Roda at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Roda's way, especially at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Roda or Jong AZ?
Roda, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Roda, 21% the draw and 28% Jong AZ.
When and where is Roda vs Jong AZ being played?
30 October 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Roda and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ 2-0 Roda on 24 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Roda and Jong AZ?
Roda have taken 10 points from their last five (WWDLW), Jong AZ 8 from theirs (WDLWD). Most recently Roda took a 3-2 win away at Almere City FC and Jong AZ a 5-4 win at home to Helmond Sport.
How many goals are expected in Roda vs Jong AZ?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 1.20 for Roda and 2.80 for Jong AZ. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.