Waalwijk vs Almere City FC — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Waalwijk the pick at 53% for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Waalwijk host Almere City FC on 30 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk. Waalwijk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 13 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Waalwijk - Almere City FC. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Waalwijk: they come in on two successive draws, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 27 conceded in 19 matches, 2.16 and 1.42 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 36.0 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +4.
Almere City FC: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (41 scored and 35 conceded in 20 matches, 2.05 and 1.75 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.2 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Waalwijk | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 4th |
| Goal difference | +4 | +13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLDL | LLWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 8 | 9 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 19 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.16 / 1.42 | 2.05 / 1.75 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.74 | 1.6 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 36.0 | 48.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Waalwijk 36.0 versus Almere City FC 48.2, a gap of 12.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Waalwijk's way at 61%.
The call
The model tilts to Waalwijk at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Waalwijk's way, especially at Mandemakers Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Waalwijk or Almere City FC?
Waalwijk, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Waalwijk, 25% the draw and 22% Almere City FC.
When and where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
30 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk on 17 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have taken 3 points from their last five (DDLDL), Almere City FC 6 from theirs (LLWWL). Most recently Waalwijk took a 1-1 draw away at De Graafschap and Almere City FC a 2-3 defeat at home to Roda.
How many goals are expected in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.80 for Waalwijk and 2.00 for Almere City FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.