Dordrecht vs NAC Breda match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Dordrecht the pick at 43% for Dordrecht vs NAC Breda. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Dordrecht host NAC Breda on 6 November 2026 at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht. Dordrecht are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 14 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Dordrecht - NAC Breda. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Dordrecht: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 27 conceded in 17 matches, 1.29 and 1.59 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.6 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -15.
NAC Breda: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 28 conceded in 17 matches, 0.94 and 1.65 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Dordrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -15 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWLD | WDWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 11 | 9 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 1.59 | 0.94 / 1.65 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.29 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.6 | 62.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 37% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Dordrecht 44.6 versus NAC Breda 62.4, a gap of 17.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Twelve places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Dordrecht's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Dordrecht at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. NAC Breda's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Dordrecht's way, especially at M-Scores Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Dordrecht or NAC Breda?
Dordrecht, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Dordrecht, 20% the draw and 37% NAC Breda.
When and where is Dordrecht vs NAC Breda being played?
6 November 2026 at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Dordrecht and NAC Breda met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Dordrecht and NAC Breda?
Dordrecht have taken 4 points from their last five (LLWLD), NAC Breda 11 from theirs (WDWWD). Most recently Dordrecht took a 2-3 defeat away at SC Genemuiden and NAC Breda a 3-1 win away at JOS Watergraafsmeer.
How many goals are expected in Dordrecht vs NAC Breda?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 2.00 for Dordrecht and 2.00 for NAC Breda. It rates over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.