Vitesse vs De Graafschap: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Vitesse the pick at 53% for Vitesse vs De Graafschap. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
De Graafschap travel to Vitesse on 8 November 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem. Vitesse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 53%. This matchday 14 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Vitesse - De Graafschap. Kick-off is 11:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Vitesse: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -1.
De Graafschap: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.2 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Vitesse | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWL | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 5 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.4 | 49.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 53% | 24% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Vitesse 41.4 versus De Graafschap 49.2, a gap of 7.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 57%.
- First goal: Leans Vitesse's way at 61%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Vitesse at 53%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Vitesse's way, especially at GelreDome.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vitesse or De Graafschap?
Vitesse, with an implied win probability of roughly 53%. The full split is 53% Vitesse, 23% the draw and 24% De Graafschap.
When and where is Vitesse vs De Graafschap being played?
8 November 2026 at GelreDome, Arnhem, kick-off 11:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vitesse and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse on 08 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Vitesse and De Graafschap?
Vitesse have taken 7 points from their last five (DWLWL), De Graafschap 7 from theirs (WLDLW). Most recently Vitesse took a 1-1 draw away at Jong Ajax and De Graafschap a 2-1 win away at FC Volendam.
How many goals are expected in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Vitesse and 1.00 for De Graafschap. It rates over 2.5 goals at 62%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 57%, so its call is yes.