Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Almere City FC the pick at 52% for Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Almere City FC face Helmond Sport on 14 November 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere. Almere City FC are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 15 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Almere City FC - Helmond Sport. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Almere City FC: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 7 conceded in seven matches, 2.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.0 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +16.
Helmond Sport: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 18 conceded in seven matches, 2.86 and 2.57 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 33.5 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Almere City FC | Helmond Sport |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 17th |
| Goal difference | +16 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | LWLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 7 | 12 / 16 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.0 / 1.0 | 2.86 / 2.57 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.0 | 33.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 26% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Almere City FC 59.0 versus Helmond Sport 33.5, a gap of 25.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 14 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 5.60, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Almere City FC's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Almere City FC at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Almere City FC's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Almere City FC's way, especially at Yanmar Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Almere City FC or Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Almere City FC, 22% the draw and 26% Helmond Sport.
When and where is Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport being played?
14 November 2026 at Yanmar Stadion, Almere, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC 0-1 Helmond Sport on 13 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Almere City FC and Helmond Sport?
Almere City FC have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), Helmond Sport 3 from theirs (LWLLL). Most recently Almere City FC took a 3-1 win away at Jong AZ and Helmond Sport a 2-3 defeat at home to FC Volendam.
How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport?
The model's combined scoring line is 5.60 — 2.60 for Almere City FC and 3.00 for Helmond Sport. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.