Waalwijk vs Den Bosch match summary and prediction — Eerste Divisie
Our model makes Waalwijk the pick at 57% for Waalwijk vs Den Bosch. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Waalwijk face Den Bosch on 14 November 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk. Waalwijk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 57%. This matchday 15 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as Waalwijk - Den Bosch. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Waalwijk: they come in on the back of a draw, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, four draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (13 scored and 10 conceded in eight matches, 1.62 and 1.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of +3.
Den Bosch: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 2.14 and 1.71 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 62.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Waalwijk | Den Bosch |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 9th |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDDD | DWWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 7 | 15 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.62 / 1.25 | 2.14 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.8 | 62.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 57% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Waalwijk 35.8 versus Den Bosch 62.2, a gap of 26.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Waalwijk's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Waalwijk at 57%, a gap of 34 percentage points to the next outcome. Den Bosch's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Waalwijk's way, especially at Mandemakers Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Waalwijk or Den Bosch?
Waalwijk, with an implied win probability of roughly 57%. The full split is 57% Waalwijk, 20% the draw and 23% Den Bosch.
When and where is Waalwijk vs Den Bosch being played?
14 November 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Waalwijk 2-3 Den Bosch on 21 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Waalwijk and Den Bosch?
Waalwijk have taken 4 points from their last five (DLDDD), Den Bosch 11 from theirs (DWWDW). Most recently Waalwijk took a 1-1 draw away at FC OSS and Den Bosch a 1-1 draw at home to Jong Utrecht.
How many goals are expected in Waalwijk vs Den Bosch?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.20 for Waalwijk and 2.60 for Den Bosch. It rates over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.