MVV vs Vitesse — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Vitesse the pick at 47% for MVV vs Vitesse. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
MVV host Vitesse on 15 November 2026 at De Geusselt, Maastricht. Vitesse are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 15 fixture in Eerste Divisie is listed as MVV - Vitesse. Kick-off is 13:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
MVV: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 18 conceded in eight matches, 1.12 and 2.25 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -10.
Vitesse: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | MVV | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -10 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDL | DWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 12 | 4 / 3 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.12 / 2.25 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.33 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.8 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 47% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: MVV 35.8 versus Vitesse 41.4, a gap of 5.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Vitesse's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to Vitesse at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Vitesse's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: MVV or Vitesse?
Vitesse, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 30% MVV, 23% the draw and 47% Vitesse.
When and where is MVV vs Vitesse being played?
15 November 2026 at De Geusselt, Maastricht, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between MVV and Vitesse?
Vitesse 0-0 MVV on 17 April 2026.
What is the recent form of MVV and Vitesse?
MVV have taken 4 points from their last five (WLLDL), Vitesse 7 from theirs (DWLW). Most recently MVV took a 2-0 win away at Emmen and Vitesse a 1-1 draw away at Jong Ajax.
How many goals are expected in MVV vs Vitesse?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for MVV and 1.00 for Vitesse. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.