Ajax vs Willem II: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Ajax the pick at 54% for Ajax vs Willem II. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Willem II travel to Ajax on 15 September 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Ajax are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 3 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Ajax - Willem II. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ajax: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (48 scored and 63 conceded in 32 matches, 1.5 and 1.97 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +4.
Willem II: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (33 scored and 19 conceded in 18 matches, 1.83 and 1.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.1 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ajax | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWD | LDLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 16 / 10 | 6 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 32 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.5 / 1.97 | 1.83 / 1.06 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.16 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 49.3 | 26.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Ajax 49.3 versus Willem II 26.1, a gap of 23.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.70, over 2.5 goals at 30% and both teams to score at 35%.
- First goal: Leans Ajax's way at 70%.
The call
The model tilts to Ajax at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Ajax's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Ajax's way, especially at Johan Cruijff Arena.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ajax or Willem II?
Ajax, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% Ajax, 35% the draw and 11% Willem II.
When and where is Ajax vs Willem II being played?
15 September 2026 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Have Ajax and Willem II met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Ajax and Willem II?
Ajax have taken 10 points from their last five (LWWWD), Willem II 4 from theirs (LDLLW). Most recently Ajax took a 1-3 defeat at home to PSV Eindhoven and Willem II a 0-3 defeat at home to Excelsior.
How many goals are expected in Ajax vs Willem II?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.70 — 1.20 for Ajax and 0.50 for Willem II. It rates over 2.5 goals at 30%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 35%, so its call is no.