AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 51% for AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Telstar travel to AZ Alkmaar on 20 September 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 51%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 7 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as AZ Alkmaar - Telstar. Kick-off is 12:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
AZ Alkmaar: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (53 scored and 31 conceded in 27 matches, 1.96 and 1.15 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 71.1 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Telstar: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 24 conceded in 16 matches, 1.81 and 1.5 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -6.
Comparison data
| Statistic | AZ Alkmaar | Telstar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 13th |
| Goal difference | +11 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWWW | DLDLL |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 15 / 6 | 3 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 27 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.96 / 1.15 | 1.81 / 1.5 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.74 | 1.62 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 71.1 | 30.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 24% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 2 | 0 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): AZ Alkmaar two wins, Telstar none wins, none draws — an edge to AZ Alkmaar.
- Most recent meeting: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar on 04 March 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in one of the two — a fixture that has historically stayed tight.
- Pre-match form ratings: AZ Alkmaar 71.1 versus Telstar 30.2, a gap of 40.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eleven places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.40, over 2.5 goals at 99% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans AZ Alkmaar's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. AZ Alkmaar's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: AZ Alkmaar or Telstar?
Neither side. Our model splits it 25% AZ Alkmaar, 51% the draw and 24% Telstar, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar being played?
20 September 2026 at AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between AZ Alkmaar and Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Telstar on 04 March 2026.
What is the recent form of AZ Alkmaar and Telstar?
AZ Alkmaar have taken 13 points from their last five (DWWWW), Telstar 2 from theirs (DLDLL). Most recently AZ Alkmaar took a 1-1 draw at home to Willem II and Telstar a 0-0 draw away at Heerenveen.
How many goals are expected in AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.40 — 1.40 for AZ Alkmaar and 3.00 for Telstar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 99%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.