Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Utrecht the pick at 64% for Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Utrecht face PEC Zwolle on 24 October 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht. Utrecht are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 64%. This matchday 10 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Utrecht - PEC Zwolle. Kick-off is 14:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Utrecht: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (39 scored and 37 conceded in 29 matches, 1.34 and 1.28 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.8 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -10.
PEC Zwolle: they come in on the back of a win, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 27 conceded in 13 matches, 1.31 and 2.08 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.3 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -12.
Side by side
| Statistic | Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 15th |
| Goal difference | -10 | -12 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLWD | WLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 11 | 6 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 29 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.34 / 1.28 | 1.31 / 2.08 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.41 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.8 | 35.3 |
| Players unavailable | 12 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 14% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Utrecht 55.8 versus PEC Zwolle 35.3, a gap of 20.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Utrecht carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Utrecht's way at 67%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards Utrecht at 64%, a gap of 41 percentage points to the next outcome. Utrecht's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Utrecht's way, especially at Stadion Galgenwaard.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Utrecht or PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht, with an implied win probability of roughly 64%. The full split is 64% Utrecht, 23% the draw and 14% PEC Zwolle.
When and where is Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
24 October 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
Have Utrecht and PEC Zwolle met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Utrecht and PEC Zwolle?
Utrecht have taken 10 points from their last five (WWLWD), PEC Zwolle 4 from theirs (WLLLD). Most recently Utrecht took a 2-1 win away at Twente and PEC Zwolle a 4-1 win at home to GO Ahead Eagles.
How many goals are expected in Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Utrecht and 1.20 for PEC Zwolle. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists twelve players unavailable for Utrecht and six for PEC Zwolle at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.