Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen match summary and prediction — Eredivisie
Our model makes Heerenveen the pick at 41% for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Heerenveen face NEC Nijmegen on 31 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen. Heerenveen are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 41%. This matchday 11 fixture in Eredivisie is listed as Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen. Kick-off is 17:45 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Heerenveen: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 30 conceded in 18 matches, 1.56 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.6 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +5.
NEC Nijmegen: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (40 scored and 30 conceded in 21 matches, 1.9 and 1.43 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Heerenveen | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLW | DWDDD |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 13 / 4 | 10 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 21 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.56 / 1.67 | 1.9 / 1.43 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.56 | 1.86 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.6 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 2 | 10 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 35% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Heerenveen 59.6 versus NEC Nijmegen 38.1, a gap of 21.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: NEC Nijmegen carry the heavier absentee list, ten players to two.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Heerenveen's way at 49%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Heerenveen at 41%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Heerenveen's way, especially at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Heerenveen or NEC Nijmegen?
Heerenveen, with an implied win probability of roughly 41%. The full split is 41% Heerenveen, 24% the draw and 35% NEC Nijmegen.
When and where is Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
31 October 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Heerenveen on 22 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen?
Heerenveen have taken 12 points from their last five (WWWLW), NEC Nijmegen 7 from theirs (DWDDD). Most recently Heerenveen took a 2-0 win away at Excelsior Maassluis and NEC Nijmegen a 2-2 draw at home to Groningen.
How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.60 for Heerenveen and 2.00 for NEC Nijmegen. It rates over 2.5 goals at 65%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists two players unavailable for Heerenveen and ten for NEC Nijmegen at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.